Can he win the state? Well look at these numbers from CNN:
2004 Kerry (D) 51% Bush (R) 48.5%
2000 Gore (D) 50.6% Bush (R) 46.4%
1996 Clinton (D) 49.2% Dole (R) 40%
1992 Clinton (D) 45.1% Bush (R) 36.1%
1988 Bush (R) 50.7% Dukakis (D) 48.4%
1984 Reagan (R) 53.3% Mondale (D) 46%
1980 Reagan (R) 49.6% Carter (D)42.5%
1976 Carter (D) 50.4% Ford (R) 47.7%

You will notice that Bill Clinton has been the only Democrat to pull away convincingly in the last 8 times out, greater than 5 percent. (Aside from the Republican victories…) So is Obama going to outdo a Clinton here? Recent polls shows her up 14 points.
Also, from CNN:
1. Many residents of Pennsylvania are older; in 2006 it boasted the second-largest elderly population in the nation — outdone only by Florida.
2. Recent strides by Pennsylvania lawmakers to increase statewide health care benefits make it an appropriate Democratic debating ground for rival national health plans proposed by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Barack health care plan isn’t going to play that well. And Hillary has been at the forefront of healthcare (if failing on it) for years. But she appeals to seniors – more than Barack.

3. Penn is a closed primary. Plays again to Hillary – since crossover votes are not in play.

Meanwhile, the difference in math:
Penn – (158) -188 delegates
N.C. – 115 delegates
IN – 72 delegates.

Barack is up 12 points in N.C. – after turning the tide there. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html)

Barack is polling ahead in Indiana too, as of late February. (http://www.news-tribune.net/local/local_story_056160830.html) However, plenty of undecided could change that…and that might be the strategy.

It isn’t that Pennsylvania isn’t important, but for a primary, he is using his time more efficiently in getting 2 states (NC & IN) with enough delegates to get ahead or hold ground.

He could get say 66 delegates in Pennsylvania losing 92. So a 26 delegate give up to Hill. (58-42 loss)

In N.C. he might get 65 to Hill’s 50. (56-44 win)
In Indiana say 40 to 32. (56-42 win)

So 26 minus 23 equals 3 delegates lost in 3 states!!!

Essentially, he is fighting a holding action. Don’t lose too big, but don’t put all the eggs on one state. And granted, he could lose too big in Pennsylvania and momentum, that evil word, will possibly swing. (But it is even more risk adverse if he plows all his money into 1 state – loses – and can’t rebound in 2 states he is currently doing well in.)

And she’s going broke -http://www.tothepointandback.com/blog/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign-out-of-money-and-broke/ – as she is having a difficult time paying off her bills. (I can relate.)

He’s ahead; and with the negative Wright comments, and Pennsyvlania an Alabama state, older, set in ways and loving of Bill, it is hard to put the huge emphasis on it. (And Barack’s people know it…you should too, now.)

bullhockey.

Obama can win this state. That IS the point. If he wins this state then Hillary will have no choice but to fold her ironpantsuit and be off. And we all then get a break from the politicians.

But ya can’t win the game iffn ya don’t play. And that is very important.

Otherwise, I will now shut up and go away.